FJRP is now calling the 2004 election for President George W. Bush.
Why:
Really it’s quite complicated and I don’t have enough time to type it all out; BUT, mainly it’s because of this poll which shows Kerry LOST ground after the Democratic National Convention. The article says:
“However, it is the first Gallup poll since 1972 showing a presidential candidate losing popular support in the wake of his political convention.”
The person they are referring to in 1972 was Democratic candidate George McGovern. In-fact Nixon beat George McGovern by one of the widest margins in the record books (Richard M. Nixon 520 ECV, George McGovern 17 ECV).
Before that, Kerry continued to lose ground shortly after he chose Edwards as his V.P. (See http://apnews.myway.com/article/20040708/D83MR9TG0.html ).
The republicans expected for Kerry to get a very large boost after the DNC (15 point boost to be exact (see http://deseretnews.com/dn/view/0,1249,595075325,00.html ) Gallop expected a five point boost for Kerry (See http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1183074/posts ).
After the review of history, polls, issues and etc, FJRP is quite comfortable in calling the election for George W. Bush.
Sources:
http://www.freerepublic.com/
http://www.ap.org/
http://apnews.myway.com/
http://www.whitehouse.gov/
http://www.dol.gov/
http://www.gop.com/
http://www.johnkerry.com/
http://www.drudgereport.com/
http://news.google.com/
http://web.archive.org/
(and more, but these are the ones that led to the conclusions stated above)
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